A Ríos Haul Continues Charlotte FC's Winning Streak
More about Charlotte FC's Playoff Picture below
Scoring four goals in one match is called a “haul.”
It’s a term many in the Queen City learned October 1st as Charlotte FC forward Daniel Ríos scored every goal in Charlotte’s 4-0 rout of Eastern Conference leader Philadelphia Union. Ríos put on a clinic against the best defense in Major League Soccer, scoring in both halves and from one penalty.
Unsurprisingly, the performance earned Ríos MLS Player of the Week honors; it’s the first time a Charlotte player has won the vote two weeks in a row. Karol Świderski, who has been fluid between the striker and center attacking midfield positions, won last week.
Despite the one-sided nature of the scoring, the win was the result of a cohesive team effort with strong performances from box to box. Winger Kamil Jóźwiak assisted on the first two goals before taking the bench in the second half and played his best footy to date for the club. Defender Nathan Byrne had an exceptional match, and likely prevented two goals; the same could be said of his defensive counterpart Adilson Malanda. Goalkeeper Pablo Sisniega earned his first MLS start when Kristijan Kahlina sustained an injury during warmups and left his first match with a clean sheet.
Świderski wore the captain’s armband due to the continued absence of Christian Fuchs due to his second red card of the season, and his status as the leader on the pitch caused a disagreement when he wanted to take the penalty kick instead of Ríos. Up until that point, Fuchs, as captain, was the only Charlotte FC player to have taken penalties in MLS play. Eventually Świderski stepped aside and gave Ríos the shot for a hat trick, after which I tweeted out the below:
I had no idea I’d be right.
It's tempting to call the win improbable. Philadelphia is clearly one of the top 3-4 teams in MLS right now. If not for the loss to Charlotte, they would be in contention for the Supporters’ Shield – the award that goes to the team with the best full season, 34 match record of the 28 MLS squads. Prior to the loss against Charlotte, they had only allowed 22 goals all season, an average of fewer than 0.7 goals per match (FC Dallas, the next closest squad, has allowed 36 goals).
On the other hand, Charlotte had its best match of the season Saturday night, and there’s enough parity in the league that Charlotte FC, on its best day, can beat Philadelphia Union. While Philadelphia fans complained about the NFL markings on the pitch and myriad other annoyances, the home team put its potential on full display for 90 minutes. If Charlotte keeps up this level of play, they can win their final two matches …
The Playoff Picture
… but it still may not be enough to make the playoffs. With Orlando’s loss to NYCFC, Charlotte can still finish as high as fifth in the Eastern Conference table, but a lot of things must go right for that to happen.
First things first, Charlotte must beat the Columbus Crew at home on Wednesday and win against the New York Red Bulls on “Decision Day,” Sunday October 9. With two wins, Charlotte would end the season with 47 points. While there is a scenario in which Charlotte can beat Columbus and draw the Red Bulls, a draw against Columbus will mathematically eliminate Charlotte, and a draw against NYRB creates a very narrow path to the playoffs that will require multiple matches to go Charlotte’s way (more on that later).
The Columbus match is a challenge for many reasons. Both teams will have little rest and will be playing to keep their playoff hopes alive. Both teams must play the rosters they started the match with back on its original date, meaning Coach Christian Lattanzio’s ability to shuffle in different players is limited.
The Decision Day match will be a challenge because of Charlotte’s weak record on the road, though the Red Bull Arena in Harrison, NJ is familiar territory; Charlotte’s Open Cup loss to the Red Bulls and road win against New York City FC both took place in the arena. Even if Charlotte brings the magic they’ve had in the past three outings, beating the Red Bulls and making the playoffs will require them to complete a five-match winning streak on an opposition pitch against the third-ranked team in the league. It won’t be easy.
Assuming Charlotte’s two wins are secured, four teams still stand in the way: FC Cincinnati (46 points), Orlando SC (45 points), Inter Miami (45 points), and the Columbus Crew (45 points). To have a shot at the playoffs, Charlotte needs two of these squads to go winless in their final matches.
Currently 5th in the Eastern Conference, FC Cincinnati is the highest-ranked team that hasn’t clinched a playoff spot. They have one match left on Sunday against D.C. United in Washington. While a win will clinch a playoff spot for Cincy, they have an inferior tiebreaker that puts them at risk if they draw or lose. If Cincy draws and Charlotte wins out, Charlotte’s higher number of wins will put them ahead in the table. If Charlotte is still in the playoff picture on Decision Day, they want Cincy to lose or draw.
Currently in 6th place with 13 wins and a -7 goal differential is Orlando SC, the team that can make or break Charlotte’s playoff run. First, on Wednesday night, they travel to Miami; then on Decision Day they host Columbus. Charlotte’s clearest path to the playoffs involves Orlando winning both of their remaining matches or drawing both of their remaining matches. The math here is simple – if Orlando wins both of its remaining matches, Columbus earns no points and Miami must draw (or win) against Montreal to pick up any points. If neither Columbus nor Miami picks up any points in their final two matches, Charlotte can sneak into the playoffs with a draw against the New York Red Bulls.
On the other hand, if Orlando draws twice, Charlotte must win out. The worst-case scenario on Decision Day is for Orlando to have beaten Miami but lose to Columbus, giving either Miami or Cincy the chance to knock Charlotte out of the playoffs with a win – no matter how Charlotte finishes.
Again, nothing matters unless Charlotte beats Columbus on Wednesday. See you at the final Charlotte FC home match of the year on October 5th.